ANALYSIS: Democrats pushed back against historic trends in the 2022 midterms, overcoming broadly negative economic attitudes and Pres. Biden’s unpopularity to hold more seats than typical in the face of such headwinds. Election2022
Voters wait in line to cast their ballots in the midterm elections at a polling station in Kissimmee, Florida on Nov. 8, 2022.Democrats pushed back against historic trends in the 2022 midterms, overcoming broadly negative economic attitudes and Joe Biden’s unpopularity to hold more seats than typical in the face of such headwinds.
Election workers process absentee ballots cast in the U.S. midterm election, at Huntington Place in Detroit, Nov. 8, 2022.All those typically produce deep losses for the party in power. Yet the Democrats bucked the trend. Even with several Senate seats and House control unsettled in the wee hours, it was clear they’d dodged the level of damage usually associated with this extent of discontent.
On another front, days before his pending announcement of another run for the White House, rejection of Trump was as broad as it was of Biden: 58% saw Trump unfavorably, with 56% feeling the same of Biden. While 93% of Democrats said Biden was legitimately elected, so did 64% of independents, while only 28% of Republicans felt this. And among independents who accepted Biden as legitimate, 68% voted Democratic for House -- another result that helped stanch the party’s potential losses.With no winner Wednesday morning, exit poll results were full of reasons why the Arizona gubernatorial race was so close.
The winner on the gubernatorial side, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp, improved over his 2018 matchup with Democrat Stacey Abrams by shoring up support among key Republican groups, including conservatives , rural and small city residents and evangelical white Christians . Independents also were a factor, voting 49-48%, Kemp-Abrams; they went 54-44%, Abrams-Kemp, in 2018.
Hassan prevailed with support from moderates. She won by 27 points among this group, far outpacing her 6-point advantage among moderates in 2016. Further, abortion looked critical: 35% of voters identified it as the top issue in their vote, and Hassan won this group by 73 points with only 36% picking inflation as their top issue, but Republican challenger Don Bolduc won them by less of a margin, 42 points.
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