A tax hike threatens the health of Japan’s economy

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A tax hike threatens the health of Japan’s economy
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An influx of boozy rugby fans is not the only reason for Japanese retailers to top up their inventories this month

year the organisers of the Rugby World Cup, now taking place in Japan, held a briefing for bar and restaurant owners in Oita, a city on the island of Kyushu that will host five matches. As an example of what to expect, the briefing included a photo of a South Africa fan holding five jugs of beer in one hand. Rugby fans are a thirsty lot, the audience were warned. At the 2007 World Cup in France, beer ran short in Marseille when South Africa played Fiji.

Despite the repeated delays, it is still not clear the economy is ready for the higher rate. Exports have fallen for nine months in a row, thanks partly to America’s trade war with China and Japan’s own tussle with South Korea. Exports to China fell by 12% in August, compared with a year earlier, and sales to South Korea fell by 9%.

The absence of a boom does not necessarily mean no bust will follow. But the government hopes the impact this year will be much less than it was five years ago. The tax increase is smaller . And unlike today, households five years ago expected a second increase to follow hard on the heels of the first . Their purchases in early 2014 were an attempt to avoid both. They stocked up on cars, furniture and other durable items they would not need to replace for years.

The government will also punctuate the smooth uniformity of the consumption tax with a number of exemptions. The increased rate will not apply to food , beverages and newspapers . That will make it easier for people to read reports of the economic fallout over a green tea and a takeaway.. In a speech this week, Haruhiko Kuroda, the bank’s governor, predicted that the tax’s impact would be “marginal” compared with the previous increase.

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