Will Donald Trump’s reelection campaign be a nail-biter? No Republican president has ever been reelected with less than 50 percent of the vote. Historically, when a president runs for reelection, it usually isn’t close. Of the 31 times in U.S. history that a sitting president ran for reelection, 19 of
those were blowouts: 15 easy wins, 4 lopsided losses. Among the other 12, nearly half offered very little real suspense at the end. Let’s rank the twelve closest presidential reelection races in American history to see how few of them were really that close.
Story continuesAll that said, 1916 was a wartime election. Wilson ran on the slogan “He Kept Us Out of War,” and then led the nation into the First World War a month after he was sworn in for his second term. The only president never elected president or vice president, Gerald Ford lost a surprisingly close race in 1976 to Democratic former Georgia governor Jimmy Carter. Ford would have won the election if he had swung either New York or a combination of Ohio and either Wisconsin or Mississippi . Then again, Ford also won six states by less than 1.5 percent, ten states by less than 2.5 percent. It was a highly competitive race at the end across a broad field of states.
George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection over Massachusetts senator John Kerry may look like a breeze in retrospect: He won the biggest popular-vote share of any Republican in the past 30 years and carried every state south of Maryland, west of Pennsylvania, and east of Oregon except the Midwest holdouts of Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Bush won Florida by 5 percent, a wider margin than Kerry’s in California, avoiding a repeat of the agonizing 2000 recount.
In 1796, Adams won the states north of the Mason-Dixon line 59–14, losing only most of Pennsylvania, while Jefferson carried the southern states 54–12, losing only Delaware, part of Maryland, and a handful of electors in Virginia and North Carolina. In 1800, the South was mostly unchanged, 53–12 for Jefferson, but Adams’s edge in the North fell off to 53–20; he gained support in Pennsylvania, but lost the election owing to the decisive defection of New York’s twelve electoral votes.
The nomination of Clinton worked, bringing New York back to the Federalist camp for the last time and winning New Jersey along with most of New England. However, Madison held onto Pennsylvania and Vermont while sweeping the South and Ohio. Two states — Pennsylvania and Madison’s home state of Virginia — would have given victory to Clinton if they had gone the other way.
The result, with the incumbent party running a fresh candidate against a retread, scrambled the map: Dewey won New York , Pennsylvania , New Jersey , and 19 other electoral votes in Connecticut, Maryland, and Delaware, plus Michigan and Oregon . Added to his 1944 tally, that would have been enough to beat Truman — but Truman won back Ohio , Wisconsin , Iowa , Colorado , and Wyoming , all of them Dewey states in 1944, and won the election despite Thurmond bleeding off four Deep South states .
The story of 2012 was demographic change: Romney won most of the groups that had been key swing-voter blocs in the prior two decades of elections — most of them swing demographics among white voters — but Obama drew a sufficiently large turnout among non-white voters, who supported him overwhelmingly to move the center of gravity away from those prior “swing” voters. Whatever trouble that spelled for Obama’s coalition in 2016, it was a winning formula for reelection.
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