It wasn't that a red wave didn’t materialize in the 2022 midterm elections — it just crashed into a series of regional blue riptides. FiveThirtyEight explains:
As the map below illustrates, Republicans notably outperformed the partisan baseline of seats, as measured by FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric, in states like Florida and New York, while Democrats had stronger showings in Colorado and Michigan.The map includes races where at least 85 percent of the expected vote has been reported, where both major parties fielded a candidate and where no independent or third-party candidate finished first or second. Data in this article is as of 4:55 p.m.
This inconsistent over- and underperformance by each party proved pivotal for the 2022 outcome: It paved the way for a GOP majority while also helping Democrats avoid the sizable lossesThe difference between each House district’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean and the margin between Republican and Democratic candidates in the 2022 election.Election results as of Nov. 18 at 4:55 p.m. Eastern.
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