A New Approach to Getting Real-Time Coronavirus Stats

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A New Approach to Getting Real-Time Coronavirus Stats
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Better data could help us make fine-tuned decisions about loosening or tightening mitigation measures in different regions.

The idea of this new study is to track symptoms, not infections or deaths, and to use this information to predict hospitalizations. These time trends and forecasts are relevant for informing state and local policies and recommendations that can change flexibly over time.

The fourth signal is based on search trends on Google. That surprised me. When Google trends for the flu first came out a few years ago, there was a lot of press, a lot of hype. And then I thought there was a point where people said it didn’t really work like it was advertised.

Rosenfeld and Tibshirani say that their team can’t really make the raw data available because it’s confidential survey responses, insurance information, and so forth, but they plan to release aggregate estimates of symptom rates by county from each of the data sources, and to put these together to come up with predictions of future hospitalization rates at the level of local health care systems .

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