The 2020 Democratic race is over for most candidates, but for the top 5, it's just getting started.
The question arises as new polls today affirm the rank order of President Trump's potential challengers. The answer, four months before voting starts, appears clear: very late for most, and still early for a few.
Those 16 face grim prospects. Ten of them – Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Joe Sestak, Tom Steyer and Marianne Williamson – won't appear in the third Democratic debate next month. The Suffolk and Quinnipiac polls show Biden remains the clear Democratic front-runner. He draws 32%, with double-digit leads, in both.
Of the top challengers, Warren appears in the strongest overall position. She has gradually crept up in the polls by grounding her public arguments in concrete plans to improve economic conditions for average workers. Harris may hold the most untapped potential. Her home base of California dwarfs everyone else's; her mixed-race ancestry provides an opening to non-white voters; her age, 54, creates a next-generation contrast with the three septuagenarians she trails.
Buttigieg lags the leaders by a wide margin, nationally and in the early states. But his campaign cash ensures he will have the organization and advertising budget to compete for the Iowa breakthrough that could lift him rapidly elsewhere."Organize, organize and get hot late," says former Obama strategist David Axelrod, reciting a maxim for Iowa campaigns.
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