The 2022 election was always going to be a bear for Democrats. The only question was how bad it might get. At the moment, it appears, really bad.
Translation: The House is about as good as gone for Democrats, but holding the Senate is still within reach if things break their way. Republicans are also poised to make gains in governor’s races.
The last time a new Democratic president faced his first midterm — Barack Obama in 2010 — Republicans flipped 63 House seats and six Senate seats. But despite those gaudy numbers, mention 2010 to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell or his confidants, and you’d likely hear some variation ofThat’s because Republicans lost a handful of races many in the party feel were winnable — if only they nominated more appealing candidates.
It isn’t just Senate races that have Republicans nervously eyeing primary season. Less tested or more extreme candidates, like Arizona governor hopeful Kari Lake or North Carolina House candidate Bo Hines could jeopardize the GOP’s chances in swing states and districts come November. Both parties are also planning for disruptions in states where enacted maps face active litigation. If New York’s highest court concurs with a local judge in throwing out that state’s congressional map for impermissible gerrymandering, it could cost Democrats a handful of seats they’d engineered to be easy wins. Republican-drawn maps in Ohio and Kansas are also under review and could be struck down before the November election.
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