3 warning signs that the US economy could be headed for a downturn this year
Businesses are so desperate to hire that they could raise wages so much they exacerbate inflation
Chief among them is the sluggish improvement in labor force participation. The measure tracks the proportion of Americans either working or looking for work. The slow rebound set the foundation for the labor shortage, as last year's reopening saw businesses try to rehire from a considerably smaller worker pool. The months since have seen payrolls rocket higher, but participation remains well below pre-crisis levels.
"More labor force participation is tremendously welcome," Powell added."It will, we think, help relieve some of the wage pressures that do put inflation at risk."While several trends could throw the recovery off-kilter, they all come down to inflation. Price growth has quickly replaced the coronavirus as the biggest obstacle toward a full recovery, and it poses the biggest risk of sparking a new recession., marking the fastest pace since 1981.
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