🏈 FiveThirtyEight's 🏈 2019 🏈 NFL 🏈 Predictions* 🏈 * Updated after every game.
How this works: This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our traditional model uses Elo ratings to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs.
Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games. A team’s current quarterback adjustment is based on possible starters in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the team’s top starter.
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