A Trump administration failure to complete the China and USMCA trade deals could wreck the 2020 economic outlook. But the president's team remains optimistic.
President Donald Trump needs two big achievements to keep markets and the economy as glittering assets in his challenging 2020 reelection bid: passage of a new NAFTA and a trade deal with China.
“These are two very big factors,” Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, said in an interview. “There are a lot of different estimates around but several, including the Council of Economic Advisers, have suggested that a satisfactory China deal plus USMCA could add almost 1 percent to next year’s GDP. That’s a difference between a 2 percent economy and a 3 percent economy and that’s very powerful.”House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said positive things about the USMCA, Trump’s NAFTA successor.
The White House has been increasingly aggressive in attacking Pelosi over the USMCA deal in recent days. Trump recently complained that the deal is “sitting on Pelosi’s desk” and that she is “incapable of moving it.” But differences remain on exactly which tariffs would be removed and what kind of changes the Chinese will agree to on intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer and other critical issues. The pro-Hong Kong democracy bill thatMeanwhile, markets continue to move ahead under the expectation that a China deal will get done and USMCA will ultimately pass. Failure of one or both could trigger a serious decline on Wall Street, analysts warn.
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